By Jotirmoy Roy

India finds itself at a pivotal juncture in its defence trajectory, as several leading domestic manufacturers actively pursue deeper military cooperation with Russia. This year alone, at least half a dozen prominent Indian  defence firms have engaged in high-level, rare meetings with Russian counterparts in Moscow—an unmistakable signal of a strategic recalibration. These discussions not only underscore India’s desire to diversify and strengthen its defence partnerships but also highlight its broader aim to reduce over-reliance on Russian arms, while simultaneously bolstering indigenous manufacturing capabilities.

A New Chapter in India-Russia Defence Relations

These engagements took place during India’s first significant official visit by defence industry leaders to Russia since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022—a visit that had remained largely under wraps until now. This covert yet consequential move signals India’s intent to recalibrate its defence partnerships amidst a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. The focus is shifting from mere procurement to co-development and joint production of cutting-edge weaponry, aiming to create a resilient, self-sufficient defence supply chain.

Historically, Russia has been India’s principal arms supplier, accounting for approximately 36% of Indian military hardware imports. The Moscow meetings centered on manufacturing spare parts for Russian-origin aircraft like the MiG-29, along with other air defence systems, and exploring the establishment of local Indian production units for weapons development. These initiatives are in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” vision—aspiring for technological indigenization and strategic autonomy.

Navigating Challenges and Seizing Opportunities

While these collaborations promise to bolster India’s domestic defence industry, they are fraught with complexities. Partnering closely with Russia risks complicating India’s efforts to acquire Western military technology, especially as Western nations remain cautious due to geopolitical tensions. Diplomatic sources have voiced concerns that India’s extensive use of Russian arms and ongoing defence ties could hinder the transfer of sensitive military technologies essential for Western weapon development.

Moreover, Indian firms engaging in joint ventures involving Russian military technology face the threat of secondary sanctions—particularly in light of recent controversies surrounding exports, such as artillery shells diverted to Ukraine. Navigating these diplomatic minefields requires strategic finesse, balancing the pursuit of technological cooperation with the risk of geopolitical backlash.

Key Players and Industry Dynamics

The recent Moscow meetings brought together a broad spectrum of India’s  defence industry giants, including Adani Defence, Bharat Forge, Tata, Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Electronics, along with representatives from the Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers—an organization comprising over 500 firms. Startups exploring drone and AI applications for military use also participated.

For example, Bharat Forge, renowned for missile components and artillery guns, discussed sourcing and co-developing parts for Russian-origin tanks and aircraft, and showed interest in future collaborations in helicopter technology. Adani Defence’s CEO, Ashish Rajvanshi, represented private sector interest, signaling a willingness to deepen defence ties with Russia amidst India’s broader strategic ambitions.

Geopolitical and Sanctions Risks: Impacts on South Asia and SAARC

Despite the enthusiasm within India’s defence sector, underlying geopolitical tensions cast a shadow over these initiatives. Recent incidents—such as Indian companies exporting artillery shells to Europe, with some diverted to Ukraine—have strained India-Russia relations and raised diplomatic concerns. Moscow has publicly protested these diversions, emphasizing the fragility of India’s defence supply chain amid rising geopolitical conflicts.

The looming threat of secondary sanctions from Western powers presents another significant obstacle. Such sanctions could severely restrict Indian firms’ ability to participate in future collaborations involving Russian military technology. For a strategically situated country like India within South Asia, these risks are compounded by regional tensions with neighbors such as Pakistan and China, influencing defence and diplomatic calculations.

The pursuit of closer military cooperation with Russia, while beneficial for India’s indigenous defence ambitions, could inadvertently influence its regional standing within SAARC. Many member states maintain close ties with Western powers or have nuanced relationships with Russia and China. A perceived tilt towards Russia’s military partnership might hinder India’s efforts to foster regional trust and cooperation, especially amid ongoing border tensions with China and the fragile security environment.

Regional Ramifications and the Balancing Act

India’s deepening  defence cooperation with Russia is likely to evoke mixed reactions across South Asia. Countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh might interpret India’s moves as consolidations of regional power, potentially prompting some SAARC members to seek alternative alliances—possibly with China or other regional actors—thus complicating the regional security landscape.

Indian defence firms find themselves walking a tightrope—striving to maximize benefits from joint ventures and indigenous development without becoming entangled in the broader geopolitical conflicts. They must carefully weigh strategic gains against long-term risks such as sanctions, diplomatic fallout, and regional perceptions. Diplomatic engagement and strategic lobbying will be crucial, but their efficacy remains uncertain amid evolving geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Geopolitical Terrain

India’s efforts to deepen  defence ties with Russia through joint ventures carry profound regional implications. While these collaborations aim to bolster India’s military self-reliance, they also raise sensitive questions about regional security, diplomatic stability, and the future trajectory of South Asian geopolitics. As India maneuvers through this intricate landscape, its choices will have far-reaching consequences—not only for its own security architecture but also for regional stability, trust, and cooperation within SAARC. Balancing national interests with regional realities will be the defining challenge of India’s evolving defence strategy.